USUALLY dour Drewry Maritime Research analysts have been suggesting that there could be a "new golden age for container line profitability", reports London's Loadstar.
Conditions are improving for carrier profitability for those surviving the latest round of the mergers and acquisitions (M&A), according to the London research house, reported Lloyd's Loading List.
With fewer global carriers and a break from ordering big newbuilds, the industry has been busy preparing the ground that could see the industry return to profitability, it said.
"It might seem counterintuitive to hold a more bullish view so soon after one of the industry's most high-profile casualties in Hanjin Shipping and a third-quarter when financials were splattered in red ink leading to a collective operating loss of over US$1 billion," said Drewry.
"But such has been the intensity of consolidation that there does seem to be a very high probability that better times are just around the corner, and potentially really good times when the current orderbook is delivered," say Drewry analysts.
"We remain cautious on a general principle because carriers have a self-sabotaging streak that in the past has shortened booms and lengthened busts. Second, just because it now looks like a few big carriers will have the run of the place to themselves, it does not mean that new competition won't rise out of nowhere."
Whether carriers can be entirely pushed off the path to profitability will depend on the scale and longevity of any newcomer, or indeed an existing player with expansionist dreams, Drewry noted.
"With fewer global carriers and a break from ordering big new ships, the industry has been busy preparing the ground that could see the industry return to profitability after a long wait," said Drewry analysts with uncharacteristic good cheer.
But not to be completely out of character, they said they harboured a "nagging doubt not to get carried away".
Drewry's thinking on this relates mainly to the transpacific tradelane, where new entrant Korea Line, which bought up some of bankrupt Hanjin's assets on the route, will "have to buy their way in with cheap rates".
"So long as there is a surplus of vessels that keeps charter rates down and fuel prices are manageable, there are almost no barriers to entry," Drewry said.
There is also a continued threat from state-owned carriers driven by governments around the world that are keen to expand their shipping footprints, said the consultant.
Drewry also noted that the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) had recently ordered four 14,500-TEU ships as a first step in its renewed quest to become a global player in container shipping.